The galaxy far, far away returned to cinemas on Thursday night — and the early numbers suggest a solid but not spectacular opening for the most anticipated film of the Memorial Day weekend. Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu pulled in exactly $12 million in Thursday night previews across 4,300 theaters, including 425 IMAX locations. Pre-weekend tracking has the film targeting between $80 million and $100 million over the four-day holiday frame.
The $12 million preview figure lands just below the $14.1 million that Solo: A Star Wars Story earned on its Thursday night in 2018 — a film that went on to open to $84.4 million over three days and $103 million over four days, widely considered a disappointment for the franchise at the time. Pre-sales for Mandalorian and Grogu sat at $25 million as of Tuesday, which tracks ahead of Project Hail Mary, the Ryan Gosling space epic that opened to $80.5 million over its first three days.
The film is playing with the full suite of premium formats — IMAX, 4DX, 3D, ScreenX, and PLF — giving it every available tool to maximise revenue per seat. Shows began at 2pm on Thursday, meaning the final preview total could shift slightly once morning numbers are confirmed in Los Angeles.
The Key Question: Will Families Show Up on Saturday and Sunday?
The make-or-break factor for Mandalorian and Grogu this weekend is family attendance. Disney’s marketing campaign has been running two tracks simultaneously — targeting the devoted Star Wars faithful with imagery evoking The Empire Strikes Back‘s iconic AT-AT sequences and the gladiatorial spectacle of Rotta the Hutt, while pushing hard toward families with softer material built around Grogu’s undeniable cuteness. The Super Bowl spot featuring Pedro Pascal and Baby Yoda in a Christmas sleigh was squarely aimed at the latter group.
ALSO READ: The Mandalorian and Grogu Is in Cinemas — Here’s the Plot, Cast and What Critics Actually Think
Thursday night audiences are almost always drawn from the most dedicated fans — the ones who bought tickets months ago and come ready to cheer. The broader audience, particularly families with young children, tends to emerge on Saturday and Sunday. How well Mandalorian and Grogu holds with that wider demographic will determine whether the film finishes closer to $80 million or pushes past $100 million.
The audience signals are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes audience score of 88% is significantly stronger than Solo‘s 63% — a meaningful gap that suggests genuine enthusiasm from those who have seen it. The critic score of 61% is softer than Solo‘s 69%, reflecting the divided critical response that has followed the film since reviews emerged earlier this week.
For context on where Mandalorian and Grogu sits in franchise history — Disney’s acquisition of Lucasfilm produced The Force Awakens in 2015, which set the all-time domestic opening weekend record at $247.9 million before the Avengers films surpassed it. Rogue One opened to $155 million domestically in 2016. The bar is set extremely high. A $100 million holiday weekend would represent a respectable result, though not the kind of statement opening that would silence questions about where the Star Wars franchise is heading.
The Rest of the Weekend Box Office
The holiday frame is competitive. Michael, the Lionsgate Michael Jackson biopic, enters its fourth weekend with $37.5 million, bringing its domestic total to $294.1 million — a genuinely remarkable run for a musical biopic. The Devil Wears Prada 2 adds $25.6 million in its third weekend despite a steep 54% drop, crossing $183.5 million domestically. Mortal Kombat II brings in $17.7 million in its second frame, while The Sheep Detectives holds well with $14.1 million in its second weekend.
The week’s surprise is Focus Features’ Obsession, directed by Curry Barker. The horror romance has beaten Michael at the daily box office on Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week — an extraordinary performance for a non-franchise film — and enters the holiday weekend with $27 million already banked domestically. With strong holdover momentum and a Blumhouse co-brand, it looks well positioned to deliver another impressive weekend.
Two new wide releases join the frame. Paramount’s R-rated horror film Passenger, starring Melissa Leo, earned $1.1 million in Thursday previews from approximately 2,125 locations and is expected to finish the four-day frame between $9 million and $10 million. Critics are lukewarm at 46% and audience enthusiasm is similarly muted at 50%. NEON’s I Love Boosters, the satirical comedy from director Boots Riley starring Keke Palmer, Taylour Paige, Poppy Liu, Eiza González, and Naomi Ackie, earned $430,000 in previews and is tracking toward the high single digits over four days. Critics love it at 92% fresh, which gives it real word-of-mouth potential.
Last Memorial Day weekend set an all-time record for the holiday frame with $326.7 million across all films, powered by Disney’s Lilo and Stitch live-action remake and its $182.6 million four-day opening. This year’s frame is unlikely to match that ceiling, but Mandalorian and Grogu gives the weekend a genuine centrepiece attraction. Full weekend numbers arrive Monday.
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