People are dancing in the theatres. Literally.
That is what sources close to Lionsgate’s Michael Jackson biopic are reporting as the film continues to shatter expectations at the box office — and honestly, for a movie about the King of Pop, there could not be a more fitting reaction.
Michael, directed by Antoine Fuqua and featuring Jaafar Jackson — Michael’s own nephew — in the title role, is tracking toward a stunning $85 million to $95 million opening weekend in the United States alone. With a clear path to even higher if the audience holds strong through Sunday, this is shaping up to be one of the most significant box office events of the year.
The Numbers That Are Turning Heads
The film pulled in $12.6 million in preview screenings alone — a figure that instantly rewrites the record books for musical biopics. For context, Straight Outta Compton — the previous record holder for opening weekend in the genre — brought in just $4.96 million in previews before going on to a then-record $60.2 million debut. Michael has already left that milestone in the dust before the weekend even officially began.
Those preview numbers also surpass some genuinely impressive company. John Wick: Chapter 4 — Lionsgate’s biggest post-Covid opening at $73.8 million — managed $8.9 million in previews. Dune: Part Two, Toy Story 4, A Minecraft Movie, and Oppenheimer all came in below Michael’s preview total as well. The last time Lionsgate saw preview figures this strong was The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2 back in 2015, which brought in $16 million.
Friday’s early numbers point toward a $35 million to $40 million single-day total — which, combined with the weekend trajectory, puts the $85 million to $95 million opening range firmly within reach. Some sources believe the ceiling is even higher, though much depends on how fan-frontloaded the audience turns out to be.
The Audience Is in Love
The numbers are impressive enough on their own — but the audience reaction is what really tells the story.
Early PostTrak data from preview screenings shows five stars, an 88 percent positive score, and an extraordinary 81 percent “definite recommend” rating. That last number is the one that matters most for long-term box office performance. It signals that people are not just enjoying the film — they are telling everyone they know to go and see it.
The audience breakdown reveals a genuinely broad appeal. Families accounted for 36 percent of the preview crowd, with couples making up 31 percent. Black moviegoers led the diversity breakdown at 36 percent, with Latino/Hispanic and Caucasian audiences tied at 25 percent each. The film skews female at 56 percent and young — 58 percent of the audience was under 35, with the 18–34 demographic making up 55 percent on its own. Half of all attendees said they came specifically because they are Michael Jackson fans.
CinemaScore’s preview audience gave the film an A-. That matches Elvis and Rocketman, and sits just half a grade below Bohemian Rhapsody — a benchmark that producer Graham King also delivered, demonstrating again his remarkable ability to translate the lives of complex musical icons into compelling cinema for mass audiences.
The Rotten Tomatoes audience score currently sits at an extraordinary 96 percent — a figure that stands in sharp contrast to the film’s 40 percent critical score. Critics have largely taken issue with the film’s decision not to explore the sexual abuse allegations made against Jackson. But audiences, clearly, have come to experience something different — and they are responding with their wallets and their feet.
Social Media Is Ablaze
Social media analytics firm RelishMix measured a combined 417.9 million followers across TikTok, YouTube, X, Facebook, and Instagram for Michael — a figure that is 2.2 times above the norm for musical biopics. For comparison, Elvis had 278.6 million followers ahead of its release, Bohemian Rhapsody had 242.1 million, and Rocketman came in at 113.5 million.
The conversation around the film has been overwhelmingly emotional and celebratory. Fans are treating the trailers like time capsules — reliving memories and rediscovering their love for Jackson’s music and legacy. Comments have ranged from praise for Jaafar Jackson’s uncanny physical resemblance to his uncle — “He’s a clone of Michael” — to admiration for the meticulous attention to movement and vocal performance — “The attention to detail in his movements is incredible.”
Jaafar Jackson himself has built a following of 500,000 fans in the lead-up to the film’s release, while the broader cast — including Nia Long, Coleman Domingo, Laura Harrier, and Juliano Krue Valdi — brings millions of additional social media followers into the conversation.
Records Falling One by One
To fully appreciate what Michael is doing at the box office, it helps to line up the records it is already breaking or threatening:
The previous record for a musical biopic opening weekend was Straight Outta Compton’s $60.2 million — Michael will comfortably surpass that. Lionsgate’s best post-Covid opening was John Wick: Chapter 4 at $73.8 million — Michael will beat that too. Internationally, the film broke records for a musical biopic on its very first day, pulling in $18.5 million overseas through Universal’s distribution arm before the US weekend had even begun.
Producer Graham King, who also produced Bohemian Rhapsody, continues to prove that he occupies a unique position in Hollywood — someone who understands how to handle the estates of complex, legendary artists and translate their stories into films that connect deeply with audiences on a mass scale.
The Bigger Picture — and a Hint at What’s Next
For sharp-eyed viewers, director Antoine Fuqua has apparently already laid the groundwork for a sequel. The film’s structure reportedly sets up a Part Two, leaving room to explore further chapters of Jackson’s extraordinary and complicated life.
Given the box office trajectory of Part One, there is every reason to believe that conversation will happen very quickly indeed.
In the meantime, the rest of this weekend’s box office continues to hold reasonably well despite Michael’s arrival. Super Mario Galaxy Movie maintained strong legs in its fourth weekend, while Project Hail Mary — Ryan Gosling’s sci-fi epic — has now crossed $304 million domestically in just six weeks.
But this weekend belongs to Michael Jackson. And judging by the people dancing in theatre aisles across America, the King of Pop has not lost a single step.
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