The 2026 NFL season kicks off with the New England Patriots hosting the Seattle Seahawks in a Super Bowl rematch. Before the action starts, here are the futures positions worth putting on your radar — using an NFL simulation model to identify where the market is offering genuine value and where it is overpricing teams that do not deserve it.
A note on approach: patience matters more than rushing into every futures market on opening weekend. There will be opportunities throughout the season — sometimes the best value arrives mid-year when the market overcorrects after a few results. The plays below are the opening positions for a portfolio-based approach, tracked weekly with entry prices, sizing, and updates as the season develops. All units are to win one unit on favourites or risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise stated.
New England Patriots — Buy
To win the Super Bowl (+2000) — risk 0.1 units
To make the playoffs (-175) — to win 0.5 units
Over 9.5 wins (-145) — to win 0.5 units
The 2025 Patriots benefitted significantly from a weak AFC schedule. When they faced elite defences in the playoffs, their offence managed roughly 17 points per game — functional but not dangerous. The assessment at the time was that their schedule was flattering a team with real offensive limitations.
This offseason, the Patriots responded to exactly that critique. Adding receiver AJ Brown as a genuine WR1, Romeo Doubs as a solid secondary option, and offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker addresses the primary structural weakness directly. If Drake Maye takes the next developmental step — and there is a legitimate case that he does — the offence becomes something different from what it was last year. Josh Allen is still in the division and the AFC East is not handed to anyone, but the gap is narrowing and the Patriots’ futures price reflects more pessimism than is warranted.
Denver Broncos — Fade
To miss the playoffs (+134) — risk 0.5 units
Under 9.5 wins (+110) — risk 0.5 units
The Broncos have a legitimate claim to the best offensive line in football. That was also true in 2025, when the offence was below average by nearly every meaningful metric. Good blocking without a capable offence around it did not translate into points, and there is real uncertainty about whether the change ahead — Sean Payton handing play-calling duties to Davis Webb — improves that or introduces new variables.
The defensive picture is also less settled than the Broncos’ pricing suggests. Defensive tackle John Franklin-Myers departed to Tennessee, thinning the interior rotation. Jim Leonhard’s move to Buffalo as defensive coordinator is underrated as a loss — he worked primarily with the secondary as pass game coordinator, and that kind of continuity is harder to replace than depth charts suggest. A defence that takes a step back combined with an offence that has not demonstrated it can carry a team is a meaningful downside scenario at a price worth taking.
Pittsburgh Steelers — Cautious Buy
Over 7.5 wins (-140) — to win 0.5 units
This one requires acknowledging uncertainty up front: Aaron Rodgers is 42 years old and his ceiling in 2026 is genuinely unclear. But the supporting cast around him is in reasonable shape for a roster this far into its competitive window, and the reunion with former coach Mike McCarthy introduces some optimism about what Rodgers might still produce in a familiar system.
Defensive coordinator Patrick Graham performed well in Las Vegas last season and the Steelers’ defensive line gives him considerably better raw material to work with than he had in Nevada. The schedule projects as seventh-easiest in the NFL — particularly front-loaded with manageable opponents — which creates a path to eight or nine wins even if Rodgers is a slightly diminished version of his former self. The over 8.5 wins was tempting to keep the franchise’s non-losing-season streak alive, but 7.5 wins at -140 is the more conservative entry for a team with real questions at the most important position.
Running Tracker
| Team | Bet | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | To win Super Bowl | +2000 | Risk 0.1u |
| New England Patriots | To make playoffs | -175 | To win 0.5u |
| New England Patriots | Over 9.5 wins | -145 | To win 0.5u |
| Denver Broncos | To miss playoffs | +134 | Risk 0.5u |
| Denver Broncos | Under 9.5 wins | +110 | Risk 0.5u |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Over 7.5 wins | -140 | To win 0.5u |
This tracker will be updated weekly throughout the 2026 season as new positions are added or existing ones are reviewed.
Stay informed. Subscribe to the JournalTodays Newsletter for the latest NFL previews, betting analysis, and football coverage throughout the 2026 season.
