The 2026 World Cup is down to eight teams. After 96 group stage and Round of 16 matches across three countries, what remains is a compact, fascinating quarterfinal bracket featuring four former champions, two African and European debutants at this stage, and one Norwegian striker who is quietly turning this tournament into a solo exhibition.
Here is how the eight remaining teams rank, from most likely to win the tournament to longest shot.
1. France
France remains the most dangerous team left in the tournament despite a frustrating 1-0 win over Paraguay in the Round of 16. The result was uninspiring — just 0.7 non-penalty expected goals generated — but the manner of France’s control was significant: 75% possession, 15 shots to five. Paraguay played as defensively as any team left in the draw, and none of the remaining eight will replicate that approach. France still has the forward quality to hang three goals on anyone in this field. No other team can say the same.
2. Spain
Spain conceded their lowest possession figure of the tournament (55%) against Portugal but still created more than twice the expected goals (1.7 to 0.6) in a 1-0 win settled by a stoppage-time goal. Their defensive record is the best in the tournament — not one goal conceded, the fewest shots allowed, and the lowest shot quality against of any remaining team. The attack has been more dynamic since Lamine Yamal returned, though the absence of Nico Williams on the other wing remains a limitation. A potential semifinal meeting with France makes this path harder than it looks on paper.
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3. Argentina
Argentina have survived by the skin of their teeth twice — extra time against Cape Verde and an astonishing two-goal comeback against Egypt with 15 minutes remaining, becoming the first team in World Cup history to win a game in regulation after trailing by two with that little time left. Whatever method they used, it worked, and the defending champions have more match-winning individual talent than anyone except France. They also have Lionel Messi. Switzerland await in the quarterfinals, and the draw has been kind — a Colombia matchup would have been more dangerous.
4. England
England rallied to beat Mexico 3-2 at the Estadio Azteca after going down to ten men in the 54th minute — a win that showed tactical flexibility and mental resilience from Thomas Tuchel’s squad. Mexico generated 19 shots but from an average distance of 21 yards and worth only 1.1 xG — England’s defensive shape limited the quality even when out-numbered. Norway awaits in the quarterfinals, and while Erling Haaland is a formidable problem, England’s talent advantage across the pitch should be decisive.
5. Norway
Four match-winning goals in four appearances. Seven of Norway’s 12 tournament goals. Erling Haaland‘s World Cup is a thing happening in real time that will be discussed for years. His brace against Brazil — a header from a dangerous run and then a long-range strike into space — eliminated the five-time champions in a 2-1 result that was not as close as the scoreline suggested. Martin Ødegaard gives Norway a second genuine match-winner, and the team is comfortable and effective without the ball. A quarterfinal against England is very winnable for a team built on transitions against possession-heavy opponents.
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6. Morocco
Morocco beat Canada 3-0 in the Round of 16 — two late goals masking a first half where Canada outplayed them — to become the first African nation to reach two World Cup quarterfinals. This Moroccan squad is stronger than the side that knocked Spain out on penalties in 2022 before giving France genuine difficulty in the semifinals. Unfortunately for Morocco, France and Spain are almost certainly the next two opponents on the path to the final. Beating both would require back-to-back genuine upsets, which makes ranking them higher very difficult.
7. Switzerland
Switzerland are in the World Cup quarterfinals for the first time since 1954 — ending the longest quarterfinal drought in the tournament’s history — after beating Algeria comfortably and then edging Colombia on penalties. The key variable for their quarterfinal against Argentina is the fitness of Johan Manzambi, the 20-year-old who is the youngest player with five goal contributions (three goals, two assists) in World Cup history since 1966. Without him, Switzerland have scored once in over 300 minutes at this tournament. With him, they have a puncher’s chance. Without him, Argentina should progress.
8. Belgium
Belgium were arguably the most impressive team in the Round of 16, crushing the United States 4-1 in a performance so dominant that Rudi Garcia did not even need Jeremy Doku or Kevin De Bruyne in the starting lineup. The problem is what comes next — a quarterfinal against Spain, who have not conceded a goal in this tournament and play a press that will punish Belgium without the injured Amadou Onana, who tore his ACL during the US match. Belgium has the talent to hurt any team in the world. Their path to the final is the most difficult of anyone remaining.
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